⚡ StockTrader Weekly — Apr 21–25 | Hormuz Closed, $98 Oil & Mega-Cap Earnings Week

As of April 18, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has been re-closed following IRGC naval forces firing on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The strait — through which approximately 21% of global oil supply transits — is effectively shut to commercial traffic. Brent crude has surged to ~$98/barrel (WTI ~$93). The US-Iran ceasefire window expires April 21, the first day of trading this week. Energy markets are in full crisis mode. This is the dominant macro theme for the week ahead — plan every trade around it.

SPX closed last Friday at approximately 5,282. Key technical levels to monitor: Strong support at 5,200 (200-day MA), secondary support at 5,100 (major pivot), resistance at 5,350 (9 EMA on weekly), and breakout level at 5,450+ (reclaim of prior range).

Weekly read: Markets are navigating a perfect storm — oil shock from Hormuz closure, mega-cap earnings (TSLA, UNH, RTX, IBM), and a potential Fed leadership shakeup. Expect elevated VIX (currently ~28–32 range), wide intraday swings, and sector rotation into energy/defense and out of airlines/consumer discretionary. This is NOT a week to chase. Wait for levels.

Monday, April 21: US-Iran ceasefire window expires (critical geopolitical trigger). Markets reopen after weekend — expect gap opens in energy and defense. Watch oil futures at open.

Tuesday, April 22: TSLA Q1 2026 Earnings After Close (EPS est. $0.47, Revenue est. $21.3B). Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10:00 AM ET).

Wednesday, April 23: Fed Minutes Release (2:00 PM ET) — market will parse every word for rate cut signals. S&P Flash PMI (9:45 AM ET). UNH earnings pre-market.

Thursday, April 24: GDP Advance Estimate Q1 2026 (8:30 AM ET) — consensus +1.2%, a miss could accelerate rate cut bets. Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET). RTX, INTC, IBM, UAL earnings.

Friday, April 25: Core PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET) — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final). Options expiration for some weeklies — expect volatility into close.

Next Week Preview: FOMC Meeting May 6–7. Prepare positioning by end of this week.

TSLA — Tesla (Tuesday AH): EPS est. $0.47 | Rev est. $21.3B. Key questions: delivery recovery after Q1 miss, Cybertruck ramp, energy storage margins. High IV — options are pricing a ±9% move. Watch for a gap down setup if Musk commentary disappoints. Trade idea: Wait for post-earnings gap — if gap down, look for reclaim of $240 as long entry. If gap up above $265, fade it near $270 resistance. DO NOT trade into earnings blind.

UNH — UnitedHealth Group (Wednesday PM): Defensive healthcare name under pressure from DOJ scrutiny and Medicare rate cuts. Any earnings beat may get sold — institutions are lightening. Watch $480 support. Bearish bias.

RTX — Raytheon Technologies (Thursday PM): Defense contractor. With Hormuz closure and potential US military action, RTX is a direct beneficiary. Bull thesis: defense spending surge, missile system orders. Watch for breakout above $135. Bullish bias on geopolitical catalyst.

INTC — Intel (Thursday AH): Low expectations, potential short squeeze setup. Stock crushed YTD. Any beat or guidance raise could trigger violent squeeze. Watch $21 as the line in the sand — above it, squeeze candidates target $23–25.

UAL — United Airlines (Thursday PM): Oil price surge is a direct cost headwind. Any guidance cut on fuel costs = heavy selling. Watch $60 support — break below targets $55. Bearish bias given oil environment.

GE — GE Aerospace (Thursday PM): Engine orders, commercial aviation backlog. Should be solid — airlines ordering despite UAL headwinds. Watch $185 resistance breakout.

IBM + TXN — Both Thursday AH: IBM is a steady AI infrastructure play — watch $195 support. TXN (Texas Instruments) is a semiconductor cycle indicator — if they cut guidance, it's bearish for the whole chip sector including INTC and NVDA.

🚨 IRAN / STRAIT OF HORMUZ — CRITICAL (Risk Level: 10/10): Strait re-closed April 18. IRGC fired on tankers. Ceasefire expires April 21. US Navy 5th Fleet on high alert. Brent crude ~$98, could spike to $110+ if no resolution. Direct impact: Long XOM/CVX, short UAL/airlines, long RTX/defense. Oil could gap violently Monday open.

⚠️ US-CHINA TARIFFS — HIGH (Risk Level: 7/10): 145% tariff regime still in effect. Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled possible "de-escalation framework" discussions but no formal talks confirmed. Any tariff news = immediate market mover. Watch for after-hours headlines Friday–Sunday.

⚠️ FED LEADERSHIP UNCERTAINTY — HIGH (Risk Level: 7/10): Reports of White House pressure on Fed Chair Powell continue. Any credible news of Powell removal attempt would crater bonds and the dollar. Watch 10-year Treasury yield — above 4.6% is danger zone for equities.

📉 IMF GLOBAL GROWTH DOWNGRADE — MODERATE (Risk Level: 5/10): IMF cut 2026 global growth forecast to 2.8% (from 3.3%) citing tariff drag. Recessionary signals building — watch defensive sectors (utilities, staples, gold) for rotation.

Rule 1 — TSLA is the Week's Casino: Biggest earnings event. High IV = elevated premium on both sides. If you're going directional, wait for post-earnings price action to settle (15–30 min after open Wednesday). Don't be a hero holding into the print.

Rule 2 — Gap Plays Are Live: With oil shock + earnings + ceasefire expiry all hitting Monday open, gap plays are prime setups. Prep your gap-and-go watchlist Sunday night. Stocks to watch at open: XOM, CVX, RTX, UAL. Use VWAP as your anchor — gap above VWAP = long momentum, gap below = wait for VWAP reclaim or go short.

Rule 3 — Fed Minutes Wednesday = Volatility Spike: 2 PM ET Wednesday. Go to cash or reduce size 30 minutes before. After release, trade the reaction — don't predict it. If minutes are hawkish (rates higher longer), sell SPX bounce. If dovish (rate cuts coming), buy SPX dip aggressively.

Rule 4 — 10-Year Yield is Your Risk Gauge: Watch TNX (10Y yield) all week. Above 4.60% = risk-off, defensive positioning. Below 4.40% = risk-on, growth names can work. Set a price alert now.

Rule 5 — INTC Short Squeeze Watch: If INTC beats and guides up Thursday AH, be ready for a gap-and-go Friday morning. High short interest + low expectations = explosive upside possible. Entry: Above $21 on gap open, target $23–25 with stop at $20.50.

Rule 6 — Energy is the Trade of the Week: XOM and CVX are direct Hormuz beneficiaries. Both have clean breakout setups above recent highs. With Brent at $98 and potential spike to $110+, the risk/reward is tilted long. NTR (Nutrien) also benefits from energy-driven fertilizer cost spikes. Play the sector, not just one stock.

NLY — Annaly Capital Management — BULLISH CALLS: 12,500 of the May 16 $20 calls purchased for $0.45 on a single sweep. Total premium: $562,500. Volume was 45x the open interest. This is a rate-sensitive mREIT — the bet here is that Fed minutes Wednesday reveal a dovish pivot, sending mortgage rates lower and NLY's book value higher. A high-conviction institutional play. Watch for follow-through Monday.

NTR — Nutrien — BEARISH PUTS: 8,200 of the May 9 $55 puts bought for $1.20. Total premium: $984,000. Counterintuitive given energy bull thesis — this looks like a hedge against a rapid Hormuz resolution (oil drop = fertilizer cost drop = NTR margin squeeze on inventory valued at higher prices). Respect the hedge. If oil pulls back sharply, NTR could drop fast.

URBN — BULLISH CALL SPREAD: 3,495 of the May 8 75/80 call vertical spreads purchased at $1.00. Volume 30x average. Risk-defined bullish bet — max gain at $80+ by May 8. Watch for price action confirmation above $75.

This is a high-volatility, high-stakes week. Hormuz, mega earnings, Fed minutes, GDP, and Core PCE all in five sessions. The traders who win this week will be the ones who:

✅ Defined their levels BEFORE the open — not during chaos.

✅ Sized down in uncertainty — 50% normal position size on gap plays.

✅ Waited for confirmation — no FOMO chasing. VWAP reclaim = entry, not the gap itself.

✅ Had an exit plan — partial profits at first target (Camarilla R3), trail stop to VWAP, let runners run to R4.

Stay sharp. Trade the levels. Manage risk first.

— StockTrader Weekly | Published every Sunday | stocktrader-weekly.beehiiv.com

⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. Options trading carries significant risk and is not suitable for all investors.